Defence: the self-reliance decade
Why we treat India’s defence manufacturing as a multi-year order book, not a theme — and how we decide which companies have earned a place.
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For most of the last fifty years, India bought its defence equipment abroad. That is changing, and not because of a single budget or a single announcement. Procurement rules now favour domestic manufacturers, export ambitions have become explicit, and a generation of Indian companies has spent the last decade building the capability to deliver.
We do not buy a theme. A sector can be right for a decade and still be the wrong place to pay any price. What we look for is visibility: order books that stretch years ahead, execution records that show contracts turning into revenue on time, and balance sheets strong enough to fund the working capital that defence contracts demand.
The risks are real — lumpy orders, government as the dominant customer, and valuations that can run well ahead of earnings. That is why sizing matters as much as selection. Where defence appears in a client portfolio, it is sized to the family’s horizon and risk appetite, not to the enthusiasm of the market.
The question we keep asking is simple: if the share price did nothing for three years, would we be comfortable owning this business? Only those that pass make it into the portfolios we manage.